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Markets Hold High Whilst Futures Prices Rate Downwards

While European markets take a break today after new highs at the start of session, the Dow Jones is expected to open slightly lower than 0.1% this afternoon. Operators should therefore opt for caution before the President’s speech at the Federal Reserve, even if the statistics of the day are a little better than expected. The weekly jobless claims came out at 367K while the market waited for 373K and productivity increased by 0.7% while the consensus is 1%.
DOW JONES index finished the session up 0.66% at 12,716 points.

Technically, an upward bias is currently privileged Hourly Data above 12,670 points, crossing of moving averages 20 and 50 hours. In the very short term, then monitor the output of 12670/12780 points to act in one way or the other. A top out of this range would indeed require the rallying points 12830/12875 fast. In contrast, under the 12,670 points, there should be the beginning of a consolidation towards 12,560 points and 12,475 points.

Futures prices this morning have slightly reduced their lead to 14:30 after the release of the ADP survey in the private sector below expectations. 170K jobs were created while the consensus is 189K. At 16h, will still be released the ISM manufacturing index and construction spending, and oil stocks at 16.30.
The U.S. index that finished down slightly from 0.16% to 12,632 points yesterday, is now expected to rise 0.5%.

Technically, the DOW JONES is horizontal consolidation phase for several sessions within the trading range 12560/12710 points. A top out of the zone of indecision would require buy-fast 12,760 points and 12,830 points. In contrast, under the 12,560 points, we can probably expect a downward acceleration with 12,475 points and 12,315 points in sight.

All Eyes On European Situation

Europe will once again decide in how Wall Street will change this week, culminating in a European summit expected to make a definitive solution to the debt crisis that has shaken the euro area for nearly two years.

Last week, the U.S. stock market recorded its best performance since March 2009 in favor of such hopes for this crisis finally resolved.

If all goes according to plan concocted by Paris and Berlin, the EU has indeed made a big step towards a union budget Friday night, with agreement on a change of European treaties including greater fiscal discipline of the 17 countries the euro area.

Previously, according to this ideal scenario, the European Central Bank (ECB) will be on Thursday once again lowered its interest rates to avoid a relapse into recession and to give some air to banks experiencing difficulties in refinance.

But this happy outcome to the crisis is far from certain as Berlin and Paris still differ on the proper role of the ECB and how to control the budgets of the countries in the euro area.

“Next week everyone will be focused on the summit on Friday. But do not forget that we are already at the highest level since the fifteenth (early) the crisis in the euro area. Each time, stakeholders enthusiastic market before maturity and after … it’s the disappointment, “said Ken Polcari, managing director at ICAP Equities.

Wall Street has evolved sawtooth since the beginning of the fall at the discretion of the evolution of the crisis in Europe.

While the S & P 500 benchmark index fund managers, rebounded by 7.4% last week, volatility remains high due to the sensitivity of investors to any bad news from Europe.

But the predominant feeling is that European leaders have taken the measure of the crisis.

Can Greece Pull Themselves Back Again?

Given the density of the news of the day and the outbreak of the Eurostoxx 50, the US index scores have nothing shocking … the entire financial community celebrates the abandonment of the proposed referendum George Papandreou and his probable resignation in case of failure in its attempt to gain the trust of the Greek Parliament tomorrow.

But better not to ask after Papandreou, or wonder how Greece will manage to meet its financial commitments (including a literally explosive social climate and a referendum on membership of the euro zone could be be calm).

The decline 25pts basic rate by the ECB seems also good news … but it was passed unanimously by the members of the ECB about the prospects of recession in Europe in the second half of 2011 (and 2012 does not look shiny).

Moreover, if the ‘G-20′ mobilize all its efforts to prevent contagion of the crisis of sovereign debt to Italy, the word ‘recovery’ is conspicuously absent from the debate: the austerity and recession appear to be part the fate of 4 to 6 quarters ahead.

Wall Street has hardly been able to rely on the statistics of the day to justify an increase of 2% of US clues as latest figures published in the United States in the afternoon are contradictory.

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