Archive for Finance

Phil Renwick | October 23, 2011
No comments

Financial Markets Have Not Spared Oil

The wave of doubts yesterday regained the lead on the financial markets has not spared the oil that the reflux continued this afternoon. To 13 hours, a barrel of Brent North Sea available in December retroceding 0.7% to 109.4 U.S. dollars when the WTI folded with the same maturity from 0.5% to 86.1 million.

The price of black gold is currently impacted by two main factors. From a technical point of view, the recovery of the dollar, from a high of 1.3914 yesterday in the euro dollar 1.3657 this morning, playing against the price of a barrel. The dollar is actually its unique currency trading, and in case of major currencies strengthening against the competitors, the price of oil tends to fall much, and vice versa.

Furthermore, the optimistic sentiment that prevailed in recent weeks on all financial markets has given way to doubts, while a European summit is expected this weekend. Investor caution is also based on the slowdown of the Chinese economy in the third quarter to 9.1% annualized rate, a rate that did not meet analysts’ projections.

Yesterday, analysts at BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research indicated, however, build, under the fourth quarter, on a barrel of Brent at $ 102 and WTI at $ 88. ‘In the case of a mild global recession, Brent could go under $ 80 before recovering with the likely closure of the valve by OPEC’, says the research note.

But the recession should not last and in 2012, the Brent should be treated on average 114 dollars a barrel, and 102 dollars for WTI. During the next six months, analysts predict that Brent will vary between 90 and 115 dollars, an average of 103 dollars.

The stocks of petroleum products that the U.S. Energy Information Agency (EIA) U.S. release tomorrow will be one of the highlights of the week oil. The consensus currently up more than one million barrels of crude inventories, but declines similar to those of gasoline and distillates (diesel and heating oil).
Category: Finance | Tags: , , ,
Phil Renwick | October 11, 2011
No comments

Recapitalization of banks in Europe

Wall Street closed sharply higher Monday, significantly increasing its gains last week as investors welcomed the French and German commitments to the crisis of European debt.

The stock market was open on Monday, public holiday in the United States (Columbus Day), unlike the bond market.

France and Germany have given themselves until the end of October to overcome many obstacles on the recapitalization of banks, the euro and its sickest member, Greece, and on European governance.

On the front bank, Belgium, France and Luxembourg, after a night of negotiations, gave Monday morning launched the dismantling of the Franco-Belgian bank Dexia, the first European banking group with large succumb to the crisis of sovereign debt in the eurozone. The S & P 500 has exceeded its 50 days moving average for the first time since late July, and this in itself could be a bullish signal. The next resistance bars are 1200, he grazed Monday, then in 1230.

The S & P 500 has now increased by over 10% on a floor entered Tuesday and had projected the index briefly in a bear market (bear market). His lead is due to redemptions of overdrafts and fund managers who try to take the train. The Dow Jones gained 330.06 points (2.97%) to 11,433.18, the S & P 500 took 39.43 points (3.41%) to 1,194.89 and the Nasdaq composite 86.70 points (3.5%) to 2, 566.05.

“The market gave Merkel and Sarkozy the benefit of the doubt but they know they must have something concrete,” said Quincy Krosby (Prudential Financial).

However, for her, the rescue of Dexia shows that European countries “can act quickly and effectively,” which nourish the hope of a similar behavior for the debt crisis in general.

The bank has benefited many of these good news, fearing least the fellows that U.S. banks are exposed to losses of their European counterparts.
Category: Finance |
Phil Renwick | July 19, 2011
No comments

Oil And Opec On Extra Capacity

Last week, oil hit its highest level in a month. The fact that oil could reach $ 150 by next spring even made the cover of Barron’s. They cited some data on the “extra capacity” – or rather the lack of capacity

The IEA warned that unless OPEC will succeed in increasing the production of 1, 5 million barrels per day – about as much as the lack of production in Libya – World oil demand will begin to exceed the Offer available between now and the end of the year.

Thus, according to Jeff Rubin, a former chief economist of CIBC World Markets, “if there is insufficient supply to supply 89 million barrels of oil that the world economy is supposed to burn every day, the price of oil in the world can only go in one direction. ”

“We see no obvious end to the conflict in Libya,” says Rubin, “and with the sectarian violence against the oil fields and refineries, which suddenly increased in Iraq in preparation for the withdrawal of U.S. troops, the future does not seem to smile a potential increase in production by OPEC. “. It is even more evident when looking at the largest producer in the region, Saudi Arabia: it has little more to offer the global energy mix as heavy oil and acid which nobody wants .

It’s not as if the Saudi sheiks did not efforts. Production in the Kingdom has increased by almost 4% last month to 9.7 million barrels per day.

The problem is that only half of that increase has come in the international market. The rest is kept in the country to supply the Saudi refineries and allow to run the “power generation and desalination plants during the peak summer season,” according to an IEA report published yesterday.

Two other factors that boosted demand for oil: power cuts in China and Japan. Because of drought in China, hydropower can not generate as much power. Diesel generators must be compensated. And it is also the diesel takes over in Japan, following the disaster of Fukushima. Two-thirds of the country’s nuclear capability are now out of service … and they are not close to being restarted.

The oil should remain profitable for some time – even if it appears to be a “recovery” in the United States eventually give birth to a mouse.
Category: Finance | Tags: , , , , ,
« Older Entries   Recent Entries »
Edit translation
Machine translation (Google):
Loading...
Copy to editor
or Cancel