With the return of risk appetite on the weekend, the dollar has lost some of the gains made the previous weeks. This result is reassuring of the Franco-German on the fact that Greece would not be excluded from the euro area and the intervention of central banks to provide dollar banks. This reduced the effect of the dollar scarcity and hence the dollar basis swap three months. The EURUSD is thus returned to 1.39 after have tested a low of 1.3495 earlier this week.
Despite the Franco-German ads and help central banks in dollars, the uncertainties in Greece are far from being lifted, including the fear of failure. The rate of private sector participation in the plan July 21 has not been provided and the market is now awaiting the report of the Tro? ka on progress in reducing the government deficit in Greece at the end of the month.
There will be more than a telescoping of the plan with the Greek vote in the German Bundestag on September 29. Meanwhile, the Fed meeting on 20 and 21 September should not lead to a new EQ3 but probably by extending the duration assets of the Fed, which should not weigh on the dollar. In this context, if the EURUSD could still test the level of 1.395, but it should go back down to 1.34 in the coming weeks.
For their part, the traditional safe haven currencies CHF and JPY rose against the dollar declined slightly against the euro and. The EURCHF has however maintained above 1.20 while the EURJPY has tested its lows 10 years to 103.9 due to the strong yen. Although the USDJPY has remained above 76, the probability of an intervention by the BoJ remains important in the coming weeks if the yen continues to s’ appreciated against most currencies.
Finally, many currencies have conveniently corrected earlier this week to face the strong risk aversion and prudence of central banks, including the RBA, RBNZ and the Norges Bank in Norway. In the short term, these currencies remain rather fragile face of persistent uncertainty. International Money Transfer